Wednesday, January 7, 2009

International pressure points that could erupt into war at any time during the next four years

The U.S. is confronted with a number of international conflicts. They will or will not escalate to wars depending on how ready the new administration is for a fight (don't hold your breath) or whether external (if that's any longer an operative concept) events force the hand of the U.S. Let's all hope that these "conflicts" fizzle out.

1. Iraq
2. Afghanistan
3. India/Pakistan - Kashmir
4. India/Pakistan - continuing guerrilla attacks against India from Pakistani territory or with Pakistani support
5. Pakistan - we have to send ground troops in to secure their nuclear stockpile*
6. Russia - invasion of Ukraine
7. Russia - invasion of the Baltic republics
8. North Korea - their nuclear capability grows to a danger point
9. Iran - breakthrough in weaponizing their nuclear capability
10. O! Did I forget Hamas in the Gaza strip?
11. O! Did I forget that Hebollah might decide to open a northern front in case more Israeli reservists were hankering to get back into uniform?

and then, of course, there are these concerns:

1. China gets a couple (even one) aircraft carrier, and the Chinese navy decides that chasing pirates off the horn of Africa is so much fun they can now take a hand in "protecting" oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Why should the U.S. Navy bear that task alone?

2. Germany decides that staying warm in winter is more desirable than attending meaningless NATO meetings.

3. Brazil, which has been increasing its military, decides that the Bolivian gasfields should become more dependable as a supply. Not sure we have a dog ready for that fight.

4. Etc., etc.

* This is the big worry. Will the new administration have a plan in place, or will we be concentrating on really important things like CAFE standards and seating Mr. Burriss?

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